Towards advancing scientific knowledge of climate change impacts on short-duration rainfall extremes
نویسندگان
چکیده
A large number of recent studies have aimed at understanding short-duration rainfall extremes, due to their impacts on flash floods, landslides and debris flows potential for these worsen with global warming. This has been led in a concerted international effort by the INTENSE Crosscutting Project GEWEX (Global Energy Water Exchanges) Hydroclimatology Panel. Here, we summarize main findings so far suggest future directions research, including: benefits convection-permitting climate modelling; towards mechanisms change; usefulness temperature-scaling relations; detecting attributing extreme need coordination collaboration. Evidence suggests that intensity long-duration (1 day+) heavy precipitation increases warming close Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) rate (6–7% K ?1 ), although large-scale circulation changes affect this response regionally. However, rare events can scale higher rates, localized (hourly sub-hourly) intensities respond more strongly (e.g. 2 × CC instead CC). Day-to-day scaling supports scaling, proposed related local-scale dynamics convective storms, but its relevance change is not clear. Uncertainty extremes remains influenced many factors, including circulation, storm andstratification. Despite this, research increased confidence both detectability various aspects intense rainfall. To make further progress, datasets, model experiments evaluations will be required, consistent standardized comparison methods metrics, recommendations are made frameworks. article part discussion meeting issue ‘Intensification implications flood risks’.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['1364-503X', '1471-2962']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2019.0542